OSEP has released a new OSEP Fast Facts: Children Identified with Autism

OSEP has released a new OSEP Fast Facts:  Children Identified with Autism [sites.ed.gov], which takes a updated look at our data on children whose primary disability is autism.  We revised and updated our very first (and one of our most popular) OSEP Fast Facts [sites.ed.gov].  

Highlights from 2024 OSEP Fast Fact: Children Identified with Autism [sites.ed.gov]

• In SY 2022-23, the percentage of students with disabilities identified with autism is 12.81%.  States report a range from 5.76% to 17.28% of students with disabilities identified with autism.
• In SY 2021-22, Students with disabilities identified with autism were less likely to be subject to a disciplinary removal than all students with disabilities.  
• In SY 2022-23, States/entities and LEAs were more like to identify males with autism than females when compared to all students with disabilities.
• In SY 2021-22, students identified with autism, ages 14-21, exiting school were less likely to drop out and more likely to receive a certificate than all students with disabilities.  
• In SY 2022-23, States/entities and LEAs are more likely to identify Asian students with autism when compared to all students with disabilities.
• In SY 2022-23, students identified with autism were less likely to be served inside the regular class 80% or more of the day than all students with disabilities. 

Autism 101

How is autism diagnosed? What explains the rise in autism’s prevalence? How much do genes contribute to the condition? What about the environment?

In this section of Spectrum, dubbed Autism 101, we answer these and other questions about autism. Each article pulls together the latest science to reflect what we know.

Autism 101 is designed to both provide information and highlight knowledge gaps, indicating where data on a subject are absent or contradictory. Like our understanding of autism, this section is evolving, so please check back often.

Read more here. 

2020 Child Count Data on Montana Students with Autism

 1876 = 1876

So here is the big news. The number of students with autism in the 2020 school year did not change from the number of students with autism in the 2019 school year. The Child Count for both years is exactly the same number - 1876 students with autism in Montana public schools. 

We checked by comparing the changes in year to year district-level data. We checked again comparing year to year county-level data. We checked a third time by comparing year to year data on race. For each set of data, the number of students with an identification of autism increased and decreased by the exact same amount and the net sum was zero. 

Perhaps COVID had a role: 

Spring pre-school screenings were cancelled, which meant that some some students who would have been newly-identifed in the spring may not have been evaluated. 

When schools moved to remote learning, new and currently-enrolled students may not have been evaluated for autism due to the difficulties of conducting assessments through virtual observation and testing.

This was the second Child Count year in which students ages 6-8 could be served under the identification of Developmentally Delayed (DD.) Although we have only one year of comparision (2019) we will be looking at the DD numbers and other age data for 2019 to 2020.

The number of all students with disabilities in the Child Count declined by ~500 students (19,645 to 19,156.) Since students with autism average around 9% of the total child count, theoretically that could mean that there were 44 fewer students with autism as part of that decline in the number of students with disabilities. 

We will be looking more deeply at the 2020 Child Count data to see what might be interesting and will share anything of interest or conjuncture that we find. 

 

Native American Student Data

Note: The American Indian numbers are small enough that adding or subtracting three kids from a gender changes the percentage.

Autism prevalence estimates for China, Greece align with global patterns

About 0.7 percent of children in China aged 6 to 12 have autism, suggests the largest study of the country’s autism prevalence to date1. And in Greece, 1.15 percent of 10- and 11-year-olds have the condition, according to the first estimate for that country2.

Both figures fall within the range of autism prevalence estimates reported for children in other nations. The studies also show that autism is about four times as common in boys as it is in girls in both countries, a ratio in line with studiesof children in the United States and elsewhere.

Read more here at Spectrum. 

Environmental factors unlikely to account for rise in autism prevalence

The relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors to autism and traits of the condition have held steady over multiple decades, according to a large twin study 1.

Among tens of thousands of Swedish twins born over the span of 26 years, genetic factors have consistently had a larger impact on the occurrence of autism and autism traits than environmental factors have. The study suggests that genetics account for about 93 percent of the chance that a person has autism, and 61 to 73 percent of the odds she shows autism traits.

Some experts question whether twin studies — even large ones like this — can offer definitive answers.

The origins of autism may involve an interaction between genetics and the environment, which twin studies do not capture, says Brian Lee, associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, who was not involved in the study.

“Asking whether genetics or environment is more important is the wrong question,” Lee says. “To me, it’s sort of like asking whether it’s more important to put on your left shoe or your right shoe to go out in public.”

Read more here at Spectrum. 

OSEP Fast Facts: Children Identified with Autism

Read more here.

CDC 1 in 54 Children Have Autism

Read more here. 

Autism rates declining among wealthy whites, escalating among poor

For the study, the researchers analyzed 20 years’ worth of autism caseload counts from the California Department of Developmental Services, comparing data from 36 of the state’s most populous counties.

Between birth years 1993 and 2000, autism prevalence increased steadily among all racial groups.

But around 2000, the trajectories started to diverge: Prevalence among whites in wealthy counties like Santa Clara (home to Silicon Valley) and from Monterey to the San Francisco coast started to decline.

In middle-income counties like Sacramento, Los Angeles and San Diego, prevalence among whites continued to increase, but at a slower rate.
Meanwhile, in lower income areas like Riverside and the South Central Valley, rates among whites climbed steeply.

By birth year 2013, prevalence among whites in the lowest income counties was at least double that of whites in the highest income counties. Generally speaking, the higher the county income, the lower the rate of autism among white children.

Read mere here.

U.S. autism prevalence in black children based on few families

The survey, called the National Survey of Children’s Health, asks parents to respond to questions about the health of the children in their household.

The survey tends to report a higher prevalence of autism than estimates that rely on expert review of health records. The prevalence of autism based on the latter method is 1.69 percent for 2014, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The 2016 survey found that 2.5 percent of children in the U.S. had autism at the time of the survey. The survey also offered a breakdown by race: 2.79 percent in black children and 2.57 percent in white children. The estimate for black children is based on responses from just 80 families, however.

The number of black families in the 2017 survey is even smaller.

For this survey, the researchers looked at the data for children who had ever had an autism diagnosis, not just those who had it at the time of the response. The survey reported a prevalence of 2.86 percent in white children and 2.63 in black children. In this case, the figure for black children is based on survey data from only 38 families with an autistic child.

Read more here at Spectrum. 

Autism Data Visualization Tool - CDC

There are several ways to estimate the number of children with ASD. This estimate is referred to as prevalence, a scientific term that describes the number of people with a disease or condition among a defined group (or ‘population’). Prevalence is typically shown as a percent (e.g., 0.1%) or a proportion (e.g., 1 in 1,000).
ASD prevalence estimates from the following four data sources are presented on this webpage:

• Special Education Child Count
• NSCH
• Medicaid
• ADDM Network

 

Prevalence estimates can vary by type of data source because data are collected in different ways.

 

DOUG NOTES:

 

Hence:

 

 

Why does the top graph show a decrease in the number of Montana students with autism from 2010 to 2011, while the bottom graph shows an increase for the same time span?

 

Because in 2011, the federal government changed the order of "primary" disabilities in how they rank the "order" of disabilities in child count. The ACTUAL number of students with autism didn't decrease, just those who had a primary disability of autism in 2010, but not in 2011. So the same kid with autism might be counted (or not counted) differently from 2010 to 2011, even though their autism and autism identification did not change, because they no longer had a "primary" disability of autism.

 

Graphs from the OPI Montana Autism Education Project show ALL public school students with autism, not just those who have a "primary" disability of autism. We think that is the truest way to show the number of students with autism.

 

Like Abraham Lincoln said to Mark Twain, "There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

 

You can view and play with the Visualization Tool here.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AKA - The CDC report finding 1/59 children had autism in 2014.

Prevalence and Characteristics of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 4 Years — Early Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, Seven Sites, United States, 2010, 2012, and 2014

New autism prevalence stats spotlight challenge of early diagnosis

The prevalence of autism in 4-year-old children in the United States has increased — from about 1 in 75 children in 2010 to 1 in 59 in 2014 — to match a previously reported rise in 8-year-old children, according to data released last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)¹.

But children are still being evaluated for autism or other developmental conditions later than is ideal, the data suggest.

The trend highlights how difficult it is to diagnose autism in young children, experts say; early diagnosis is important so that children can be treated early.

The autism prevalence they identified among 4-year-olds in 2014 matches the prevalence among 8-year-olds that same year. (The two groups are not directly comparable, however, because the sites in the two studies don’t match up.)

The new study also shows some of the trends in variability among sites: the Missouri site has the lowest prevalence for 2014, at about 1 in 104 children, and the New Jersey site has the highest, at 1 in 35.

The prevalence in New Jersey increased significantly from 2010 to 2014, whereas the numbers remained stable in Arizona and Missouri.

There is no biological reason for the prevalence to vary so dramatically across the U.S., says Walter Zahorodny, associate professor of pediatrics at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, who led the analysis for New Jersey.

Read more here at Spectrum.

Autism prevalence in China is comparable to Western prevalence

Conclusions

Results from Jilin City, where both mainstream and special school data were available, revealed a similar prevalence of autism in China to the West, at around 1%. Results from Shenzhen and Jiamusi cities, where only mainstream data were available, prevalence is also in line with Western estimates. In all three cities, new cases of autism were identified by the study in mainstream schools, reflecting current under-diagnosis. Non-significant variation across different cities is seen indicating the need to explore potential variation of autism across diverse Chinese regions with large sample sizes to achieve a fully robust national picture.

Read more here. 

Levels of autism in China similar to the West, joint Chinese-UK study shows

The first large-scale study of autism in China has revealed that around one in a hundred people in the country has an autism spectrum condition—the same figure as found in the West.

Read more here.

Why autism at 2.5% isn’t surprising.

Let’s get one thing out right away–autism prevalence studies undercount. Not all autistics are diagnosed. That’s just a fact. Consider the recent CDC study. They look at school and medical records. In many cases, they find children are autistic based on their records–but the schools and doctors hadn’t diagnosed those children.

Combining data from all 11 sites, 81% of boys had a previous ASD classification on record, compared with 75% of girls (OR = 1.4; p<0.01). 

Yeah, more than 20% of the kids counted in their prevalence had no diagnosis. They and their families didn’t know.

And, if there isn’t enough in the records to show a kid is autistic? That kid gets uncounted altogether. 

So, when people look at the CDC prevalence estimates from over the years and cry “epidemic”, well, there’s a reason why those people usually have some causation theory that they believe in. The irony is that they are usually wrong that their theory needs an epidemic to support it. But, heavily biased people are not usually the best sources of reliable analyses.

What would be a better method of counting how many autistics are in a population? Sounds obvious–test all the kids in a given population. Equally obvious–this is a much more expensive and difficult task. One such study was published in 2011. Yes, 7 years ago. In Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in a total population sample, the autism prevalence in Korea was found to be 2.63%.  A study performed in South Carolina and reported at IMFAR last year found a prevalence of 3.62%.

This all said, we had another autism prevalence come out this week–The Prevalence of Parent-Reported Autism Spectrum Disorder Among US Children. This study found a prevalence of 2.5%.

Now here’s a nice thing about this recent study–OK, two nice things. First, they don’t just look at kids of one age. Second, you can obtain the data. Which I did. Let’s look at the autism prevalence broken down by birth year.

Read more here at Left Brain / Right Brain

National surveys estimate U.S. autism prevalence at 1 in 40

Read more here. 

Large Danish study finds autism prevalence rises with age

The rising prevalence of autism shows no sign of leveling off, according to a new study that accounts for every diagnosis made in Denmark over 32 years1.

That may be in part because more adolescents and adults are being diagnosed with the condition than before, the researchers report. The results were published today in JAMA.

“We don’t see any evidence that the prevalence increase is plateauing or stabilizing,” says Diana Schendel, professor of psychiatric epidemiology at Aarhus University in Denmark, who led the work. The findings highlight the need to expand support and services for adults with the condition, she says.

The study found an autism prevalence of 1.65 percent in 10-year-olds in Denmark in 2016. This broadly matches estimates from studies in the United States. However, the researchers tracked people into adulthood and found that autism prevalence seems to increase with age.

Read more here. 

Quashing sex bias in autism research calls for participant rainbow

In 2010, a group of psychologists pointed out that behavioral researchers overwhelmingly rely on participants from Western, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic societies — what they termed a ‘WEIRD’ sample — to draw conclusions about human characteristics¹. They demonstrated that theories drawn from this subpopulation may not apply to the rest of the world. In fact, they contend that results from these samples often represent outliers.

In autism research, much of our knowledge is similarly drawn from a WEIRD population. But there is further ‘weirdness’: For far too long, autism researchers have assumed that what they’ve learned from males applies to people of other sexes and genders.

This is perhaps understandable given the history of the field. Initial reports of autism were primarily in boys, and researchers have long considered autism a male-dominant condition. In the past two decades, the consensus has been that the ratio is four or five boys for every girl diagnosed.

But work over the past 20 years points to a lower ratio for the condition. For example, a meta-analysis published in 2017 showed that in prevalence studies that rely on direct assessment in the general population instead of on clinical or educational databases, the ratio falls to 3.25-to-1 or so². Studies of younger siblings of children with autism have similarly revealed that in this group, there is a 3.18-to-1 ratio³.

Read more here at Spectrum.

Inconsistent prevalence estimates highlight studies’ flaws

The lore about autism is that prevalence rates are rising — leading many people to call it, misleadingly, an ‘epidemic.’ Even among scientists, many assume that the largest prevalence estimates are the most accurate.

But epidemiologists know that the prevalence depends greatly on the methods used in the study.

In January, for example, the National Health Interview Survey in the United States reported an autism prevalence of 2.76 percent in 2016, up slightly from 2.24 percent in 2014. However, a 2014 survey of 8-year-olds by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a lower prevalence, at 1.69 percent. And preliminary data from a 2012 survey of 8-year-olds in South Carolina suggested a higher estimate: 3.6 percent.

What may not be obvious is that these studies varied greatly in their design, which contributed to the varying estimates of prevalence, says Eric Fombonne, professor of pediatrics at Oregon Health and Science University.

We asked Fombonne about how a study’s design influences prevalence — and in many cases, inflates the estimates.

Read more here at Spectrum. 

Data for Montana Students with Autism



A note on the 2017 data: The OPI made a change in 2017 Child Count procedures. In previous years, the Child Count included ONLY students with autism who had an IEP in effect in the online IEP system on the first Monday in October. In 2017, this date was changed to include students who had an IEP in effect on the first Monday in October AND students who had an IEP in effect in September but whose IEP may have not have been in effect on the first Monday in October due to re-scheduled meetings. These student were still receiving special education services, but would not have been counted in previous Child Counts.