2022 Child Count Data on Montana Students with Autism

(You can click on any graph or table to open it in a larger view.)

Number of students with autism by school year: 

Distribution by age

Year to Year Percentage Change

Of all of the IDEA-identified students, students with autism are now 10% of the total child count.

Male to Female follows the national distribution of four males for every one female. 

Distribution by Race

Students identified with both autism and emotional disturbance

2021 Child Count Data on Montana Students with Autism

So if the 2020 Child Count data had a big surprise, the 2021 Child Count data doesn't seem to have any *big* surprises. We may still be seeing some effects of Covid, in that the year-to-year percentage change in the number of students with autism was lower than what is generally was prior to Covid. (Click on a picture to open it in a new window.)

Here is some more data: 

Out of all the students identified under the IDEA, students with autism are about 10% of the total child count. 

Here are graphs of the number of students with autism by school year:

In 2019, the Developmental Delay criteria expanded from students aged 3-5 to students 3-8. So we wondered, did that expansion of the DD criteria to include ages 6-8 have an effect on the number of 6-8 year-old students with autism, who, if they hadn't met the autism criteria before age 6, might have continued in or been identified as having a developmental delay rather than autism? 

Probably not much?  Although the 6-8 year-old DD numbers increased by 82% in three years, the number of students aged 6-8 with autism showed an increase of 3% in the same three years, as the number of IDEA students aged 6-8 increased by 6%. Keep in mind that the age 6-8 autism numbers are fairly small so that a 1% increase or decrease would be only 4 kids. 

Data Nerd sidebar - We now have 898 students aged 6-8 with developmental delay. So I am wondering - are these 900 kids aged 6-8 who had DD as their first identification? Or has there been a corresponding decrease in SLI, CD or other categories if those 6-8 year-olds continued as DD instead of being moved to another category or exiting special education? (I will be looking at that data.) 

If you look at the second table, third line in this post and remove the 2020-2021 covid year, the increase in the number of special ed students isn't unlike previous years. So where did the 6-8 year-old DD kids come from? 

 

The age distribution of students with autism remains essentially the same as in previous years. 2020 2018  2017

Male/Female ratio shows a small change (1% = 20 students.) 

Autism distribution by race remains fairly constant. (We will share additional American Indian data in the future - scroll down here for past data.)

 

2020 Child Count Data on Montana Students with Autism

 1876 = 1876

So here is the big news. The number of students with autism in the 2020 school year did not change from the number of students with autism in the 2019 school year. The Child Count for both years is exactly the same number - 1876 students with autism in Montana public schools. 

We checked by comparing the changes in year to year district-level data. We checked again comparing year to year county-level data. We checked a third time by comparing year to year data on race. For each set of data, the number of students with an identification of autism increased and decreased by the exact same amount and the net sum was zero. 

Perhaps COVID had a role: 

Spring pre-school screenings were cancelled, which meant that some some students who would have been newly-identifed in the spring may not have been evaluated. 

When schools moved to remote learning, new and currently-enrolled students may not have been evaluated for autism due to the difficulties of conducting assessments through virtual observation and testing.

This was the second Child Count year in which students ages 6-8 could be served under the identification of Developmentally Delayed (DD.) Although we have only one year of comparision (2019) we will be looking at the DD numbers and other age data for 2019 to 2020.

The number of all students with disabilities in the Child Count declined by ~500 students (19,645 to 19,156.) Since students with autism average around 9% of the total child count, theoretically that could mean that there were 44 fewer students with autism as part of that decline in the number of students with disabilities. 

We will be looking more deeply at the 2020 Child Count data to see what might be interesting and will share anything of interest or conjuncture that we find. 

 

Native American Student Data

Note: The American Indian numbers are small enough that adding or subtracting three kids from a gender changes the percentage.

The OPI has a New Criteria for Autism

You can see the new criteria here, along with some Frequently Asked Questions. The new criteria checklist is now in the AIM system and on the OPI web page.

If you have questions, please send them to Doug Doty at ddoty@mt.gov. We will update the FAQ questions periodically.

OSEP Fast Facts: Children Identified with Autism

Read more here.

2018 Child Count Data on Montana Students with Autism

Doug Note: It will be interesting to see the data for the 2019 Child Count and beyond, as the 2019 expansion of Developmental Delay until age 9 may increase the number of students in that category while lessening the number of 6-8 year-olds who are identified in other categories.

 

Note: 2011 was the first year to allow, "multi-racial" as a choice for the Other category.

National surveys estimate U.S. autism prevalence at 1 in 40

Read more here. 

Data for Montana Students with Autism



A note on the 2017 data: The OPI made a change in 2017 Child Count procedures. In previous years, the Child Count included ONLY students with autism who had an IEP in effect in the online IEP system on the first Monday in October. In 2017, this date was changed to include students who had an IEP in effect on the first Monday in October AND students who had an IEP in effect in September but whose IEP may have not have been in effect on the first Monday in October due to re-scheduled meetings. These student were still receiving special education services, but would not have been counted in previous Child Counts.

Other Data for Montana Students with Autism

Autism as a Percentage of All Disabilities:

Autism by Gender:

This is the gender ratio of 4:1 that is common in autism. The same gender ratio is present for Native American students. 

Note: 2011 was the first year in which, "multi-racial" was available as a racial choice.